Deep trouble: Taiwan-made submarine delays raise new doubts over project's future

CSBC picture.

A Taiwan-built submarine has missed its September sea trial deadline, raising fresh concerns over the future of the high-profile project as Beijing's military pressure increases.The Indigenous Defence Submarine (IDS) programme, seen as a centrepiece of the island's efforts to strengthen its asymmetric naval capabilities, is facing its biggest test yet. 

Defence Minister Wellington Koo Li-hsiung admitted last week that delivering the prototype submarine HAI KUN, or NARWHAL to the navy by November would be "quite challenging", following a series of delays and technical setbacks during sea trials.Sea tests for the prototype vessel began earlier this year but fell behind schedule, raising questions over whether Taiwan's most ambitious defence project in decades could meet its targets. 

According to the navy, the Hai Kun was scheduled to undergo four to five surface navigation tests, followed by a shallow dive trial at 50 metres (164 feet) and a deep dive trial at 200 metres. 

The first surface test was conducted in mid-June, but after the third surface test on July 3, the submarine spent weeks in dry dock before returning to the pier in Kaohsiung port on September 2, a span much longer than had been anticipated for post-trial maintenance. Earlier in the month, CSBC Corporation, which is in charge of the construction, confirmed that it could not complete the sea trials before the end of September as planned. 

"We are doing our best to keep to the [November delivery] schedule, but the process has to be step by step," CSBC chairman Chen Cheng-hung told reporters on September 17.The extended spell in dry dock was a red flag, according to experts.Huang Cheng-hui, a retired navy captain and former frigate commander, told local media over the weekend that the lengthy repairs pointed to "structural or key technical challenges rather than routine system adjustments". Issues such as calibration adjustments could have been dealt with at the pier, he added. 

Huang also revealed that the main engine's cooling intake and discharge pipelines may have leaked during the trials. "If located deep inside the hull, fixing the problem would require dismantling components from the top deck to the bottom layer," he said, adding that the submarine's piping design and complex maintenance environment would make the fix time-consuming.

The IDS programme has also faced system integration difficulties stemming from Beijing's diplomatic pressure, which has forced Taiwan to source components from multiple nations, thereby preventing a single turnkey solution.Beijing's "interference has forced us to procure sonar, masts, torpedo tubes and combat systems from different countries", said a Taiwanese military official familiar with the situation who described the programme as "a United Nations of systems".

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. It has increased military pressure on the island - including regular drills and joint combat patrols around Taiwan - especially since Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te took office last year and referred to Beijing as a "foreign hostile force". 

Most countries, including the United States - Taiwan's primary arms supplier - do not recognise the island as an independent state. Washington, however, is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and opposes any unilateral attempt to change the status quo by force.Against this backdrop, the IDS programme is viewed in Taipei as a critical deterrent aimed at complicating any potential attacks or blockades from Beijing. 

Former navy adviser Kuo Hsi warned that the delivery of the submarine could be delayed well beyond November due to persistent technical problems. The key challenge, he said, was integrating the combat system, which was being handled by US defence contractor Lockheed Martin. Components like the sonar, optronic mast and torpedo tubes sourced from multiple foreign suppliers had not yet been synchronised. 

Kuo likened the integration challenge to "a central nervous system speaking Hindi to limbs that only understand English". He warned that the reliability of both combat commands and basic operations could become an issue if the Integrated Platform Management System was not fully resolved. 

The vessel's delay has already had political and budgetary consequences. Lawmakers have frozen NT$1.8 billion (US$58.9 million) in funding for subsequent submarines - part of a NT$284 billion programme to build seven additional boats - until the prototype passes sea trials. The navy has also budgeted NT$11.95 billion for next year's programme, but that figure is now under intense legislative scrutiny. 

Lin Yi-jun, a lawmaker from the smaller opposition Taiwan People's Party, warned that continued delays would affect budget deliberations."The defence ministry has a duty to clearly inform the public of the project's progress," she said on Friday. "If the submarine cannot be delivered on schedule in November, subsequent construction plans and budget allocations will inevitably be affected."Ma Wen-chun, a legislator from the main opposition party Kuomintang, has also demanded clarity, arguing that it was premature to approve further funding before the prototype was fully tested and delivered.

Political commentator Julian Kuo questioned Taiwan's decision to build eight submarines indigenously from scratch. He cited South Korea's cooperation with German engineers on its early submarines and Australia's eventual decision to abandon its own domestic programme in favour of buying from the US and Britain."Taiwan chose the most difficult path," he wrote on social media on Monday. "We have never built destroyers or cruisers, and now we are jumping straight to the most complex platform."

Source : the South China Morning Post (SCMP),