Flag hopping hits unprecedented levels among sanctioned fleet

Photo: vesselfinder.com

36% of the vessels sanctioned in 2025 have already reflagged The average time to first flag change post-sanctions has dropped from 85 to 45 days

Comoros and Guyana are the most common MMSIs transmitted in AIS data, legitimate or otherwise, outside of those affiliated with the flag registries of sanctioned countriesThe acceleration in flag hopping is a reflection of the increasing agility and sophistication of deceptive actors, UANI saidPOST-sanctions flag hopping has hit an unprecedented pace, with the average time between a ship being sanctioned and reflagging nearly halving in 2025.

A Lloyd’s List analysis of Automatic Identification System data reveals the average time from initial sanction designation to a ship switching flags has dropped to 45 days for those sanctioned in 2025, compared to 85 days for those sanctioned in 2024.There have been 218 cargo-carrying vessels added to international sanctions lists so far this year. Of these, 78 have already reflagged.In 2024, 323 vessels were designated. Of those, 220 ships have reflagged at least once since then, with 66% doing so within the first three months of the designation.While Russia’s war in Ukraine and the US administration’s crackdown on Iran has significantly expanded sanctions programmes over the last several years, and indeed even in recent months, the pace of flag hopping has no historical precedence.

In 2018, 211 cargo-carrying ships were subjected to sanctions for their role in supporting the regimes of Iran and North Korea. This is the previous highest volume recorded in a single year before 2024.Over a third have reflagged at least once, with the average time from being sanctioned to first flag change being 267 days. Only 12, or 16%, reflagged within the first 90 days of being subject to sanctions.

The acceleration in flag hopping is a reflection of the increasing agility and sophistication of deceptive actors, explains Claire Jungman, chief of staff at US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran.“This behaviour is rarely coincidental or administrative. It’s often a deliberate tactic to obscure ownership, complicate enforcement and maintain access to global shipping markets despite restrictions,” Jungman said.Not every flag change is a cause for concern or considered flag hopping. Ships engaged in mainstream commercial trades move between registries at some point over the period they are trading, but this is to legitimate registers and happens infrequently.The flag changing behaviour exhibited by sanctioned vessels is considered deceptive because these vessels are moving to registries that are either fraudulent or have little oversight, and they sometimes switch between flags multiple times within a short period.
Of the ships that were sanctioned in 2025, seven (3%) have reflagged more than once.

The crude oil tanker Sooraj (IMO: 9332834), for example, was flagged with Gabon when it was sanctioned by the UK on 24 February 2025 under a programme targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet”.  Sooraj began using a Maritime Mobile Service Identity number affiliated with Panama on March 14, before switching it’s MMSI to a number relating to Djibouti on April 7.An MMSI number is a unique nine-digit number assigned to a vessel by a flag registry for identifying and communicating via radio and AIS. The MMSI shows the flag the vessel claims to be flying.Most sanctioned ships are flying flags affiliated with the country being targeted under sanctions programmes, which are largely Russia, Iran and North Korea.

The ships that were flying the flags of these countries at the time of being sanctioned have often stayed with the registry.For those that engage in flag hopping the most common MMSIs being transmitted are those affiliated with Comoros and Guyana. It is not possible to assess whether a vessel is flying a false or legitimate flag using an MMSI number alone.Approximately half of all the flag changes that have been recorded since November 2024 involved vessels swapping to MMSIs to affiliate themselves with the registries of Comoros, Guyana and Netherlands Antilles (which represents either Curacao or Sint Maarten).

False flags have been linked to each of these registries.
Sanctioned ships have also flocked to Djibouti over the last six months, with 24 ships swapping to the registry.Noam Raydan, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, has observed some Russia-linked tankers switching to the Djibouti flag, a pattern observed over the past years with ships engaging in Iranian and Venezuelan trades.Much of the reflagging done by sanctioned vessels is carried out deceptively to obscure activity and identity, but some of the flag movements can be explained by registries taking action against vessels engaged in illicit tradesThe Panama Maritime Authority (AMP) is one example of a registration that has doubled down on compliance efforts, after some vessels flying the Panama flag were designated by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control.

Since October 2024, there have been 135 vessels directly eligible for registration cancellation because of sanctions, 73 of these have reflagged once and eight have reflagged twice

Since AMP began its purge in October 2024, 73 sanctioned ships have reflagged, many to fraudulent registries, while others are continuing to affiliate themselves with the Panama flag illegitimately.Similarly, the Barbados government’s decisions to limit the inclusion of Russia-affiliated ships in its registry has encouraged some sanctioned vessels to seek refuge elsewhere. “Whenever such actions are taken, vessels linked to sanctioned commodities or entities would pick up a flag associated with an open ship registry that lacks serious or robust regulations,” says Raydan.

Since the start of 2025, 215 flag changes have been recorded among the sanctioned fleet. Some 200 flag changes were recorded throughout 2024.For those sanctioned ships that have reflagged more than once post-designation, of which there have been 105, 78 of these events happened since 2024, and 80% of these involved vessels sanctioned either in 2024 or 2025.“To crack down on this, there needs to be stronger due diligence at the flag registry level — especially among open registries — and better enforcement of international transparency norms,” says Jungman. “Authorities should treat rapid flag and name changes, particularly to jurisdictions with weak oversight, as red flags for illicit activity and apply enhanced scrutiny accordingly.”

Source : Maasmond Maritime /Lloydslist/Bridget Diakun Lloyds List data reporter based in London