Bunkerspot asked industry experts on LNG, methanol, ammonia and wind propulsion, as well as classification society DNV, to reflect on some of the year’s main developments in the transition to new fuels and energy sources for maritime transportation.

1. LNG overtook methanol in record alternative-fuelled orderbook
While the alternative-fuelled orderbook was dominated by methanol in the first half of the year, LNG took the lead from the summer, with high-profile orders from industry giants including Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd.

As of the end of November, LNG had the biggest share of all orders to date in 2024, with 252 vessels, against 162 for methanol, according to data compiled by DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) platform.Market dynamics and perceptions played a role in the shift from methanol to LNG orders, explained Jason Stefanatos, Global Decarbonization Director at DNV Maritime. He pointed out that as methanol is not widely available on the spot market, companies who want to use it as a marine fuel must typically secure offtake agreements.
‘In this case, it seems that some stakeholders in the industry were affected by the fact that some of the green methanol production facilities were not actually being materialised, and some big orders from a few big players of the industry that set a tone,’ Stefanatos said. ‘Still, there is a large number of cases where methanol as a fuel is a strong and positive business case.’In August, Danish energy company Ørsted abandoned its project to produce e-methanol for the maritime sector, citing a lack of demand.

‘I think what happened in 2024 is that a number of major ship owners and liner operators came to the realisation that some of the paths that they were on were not really going to go where we want them to go,’ commented Peter Keller, Chairman of industry coalition SEA-LNG. ‘They were not realistic. They were not practical. And therefore, change needed to happen, and in most cases, that change led to LNG and the LNG pathway.’

DNV’s data shows that the uptake of alternative fuels is growing rapidly, with the total number of alternative-fuelled ships either in operation or on order now reaching 2,000 – twice the number recorded at this time last year.While highlighting that predictions are always uncertain, Stefanatos anticipates current order levels for both LNG and methanol to continue into 2025, unless the industry experiences a major disruptive event. ‘We see the orders flowing in, we expect the trend to continue,’ he said, adding that alternative fuel choices are likely to remain diverse as shipowners want to remain flexible amid uncertainty.

2. Methanol-fuelled ships, both newbuilds and retrofits, entered operations history books as the year when the first large methanol-enabled containership, Ane Maersk, entered service
More methanol-fuelled newbuild vessels started operations this year, including X-Press Feeders’ 1,250 TEU vessels in Europe, and the first tugboat to use the molecule as fuel in the Port of Antwerp-Bruges.
In addition, ‘shipowners have also continued to make progress to reduce emissions from their existing fleets with projects to retrofit methanol dual-fuel engine technology,’ highlighted Gregory Dolan, Chief Executive Officer at The Methanol Institute. In November, MAERSK HALIFAX, following an 88-daretrofit operation in a Chinese shipyard.

Dolan noted that China’s largest company, COSCO Shipping, is also pursuing a programme to upgrade a number of its containerships to methanol dual-fuel engines, launching its first methanol retrofit vessel in October.  ‘We also expect to see the volume of retrofits of existing vessels to increase as research and application of methanol-powered solutions continues to grow, with more vessel owners investing in long term fuel options,’ Dolan said.

3. First ammonia bunkering pilot completed
The Fortescue Green Pioneer pioneered the use of ammonia as a marine fuel, completing the world’s first bunkering in the Port of Singapore in March. Two months later, the company also hailed success in its propulsion and manoeuvrability trials on the 75-metre vessel

This was an important milestone, said Sofia Fürstenberg Stott, Partner at Fürstenberg Maritime Advisory, because it fuelled a growing public conversation about the hazardous aspects of ammonia and helped address industry scepticism about its viability as a marine fuel. ‘This successful trial is very important to build a better narrative and to create further confidence about what is possible and what can be done,’ she emphasised. ‘That’s why it is such an important event.’

The first orders for ships set to run on ammonia were also announced this year, including a first dual-fuel bulk carrier ordered by CMB.Tech in February. ‘That, I think, is a fundamental progress that they are now in the order book,’ Stott insisted. ‘Because before that, we only had ammonia-ready ordered ships, and an ammonia-ready ship may never operate on ammonia.’

DNV’s Jason Stefanatos also described 2024 as a ‘milestone year’ for ammonia, because it saw the first orders for vessels other than gas carriers set to use ammonia as a fuel. ‘There are many ammonia carriers that are able to burn ammonia, but this is totally different,’ he said. ‘Burning their own cargo is a bit more straightforward, but for bulk carriers or tankers to burn ammonia, that’s a big difference.’

In April, BHP placed an order for its first ammonia-fuelled large bulk carrier, to be operated between Australia, China and Japan. This shows that ‘vessels are being ordered to investigate the ammonia track,’ Stefanatos highlighted, adding that more technology developments are expected to be announced by engine manufacturers in 2025.

Stott also emphasised that much progress came in the form of new guidelines on design, training and bunkering. For example, SGMF published its first bunkering guidelines for ammonia and methanol in October, and the IMO’s Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) approved interim guidelines on the safety of ammonia-fuelled ships in December. ‘There's been a very good conversation on seafarer training and what is needed for that.’

4. Shipping giants secured landmark methanol offtake deals
The year was also marked by major shipping players moving to secure supplies of green methanol to fuel their growing dual-fuel fleets, The Methanol Institute’s Gregory Dolan noted.  Maersk signed an offtake agreement with China's LONGi, in addition to the deal with Goldwind announced in 2023. ‘Maersk is making progress in securing enough methanol for its dual-fuel methanol fleet, of which seven vessels are already in operation,’ Dolan highlighted.

In September, COSCO Shipping announced a landmark deal with China Tianying for the guaranteed offtake of 800,000 tonnes of renewable methanol. Two months later, the company also partnered with CP Group and Freepoint Commodities to build a green methanol production facility.

A database managed by the Methanol Institute and Finland’s GENA Solutions recorded more than 180 announced renewable and low-carbon methanol projects as of October 2024, with a total potential capacity of 38.6 million metric tons by 2030.  ‘China holds half of the global bio-methanol and e-methanol project pipeline, and is expected to be the main supplier of renewable methanol from 2025 to 2027 based on current project timelines,’ Dolan emphasised.

Meanwhile, bunkering capabilities for both LNG and methanol expanded geographically throughout the year. The Lithuanian Port of Klaipeda completed its first ship-to-ship LNG bunkering operation, while South Korea’s Busan conducted its first SIMOPS methanol bunkering. Malaysia’s Tanjung Pelepas reported its first bunkering operations for both LNG and methanol in 2024.

Singapore saw a ‘quite dramatic growth’ in LNG bunkering volumes, SEA-LNG reports. ‘I know that you will continue to see a lot of investment in bunker and liquefaction capabilities,’ the coalition’s chairman Peter Keller said. ‘As that happens, and as we get more and more bunker vessels and bunker barges, those will then find homes in in ports that currently are not served.’  ‘What else is going to be interesting is, as we get bunkering capability in more ports around the world, when are we going to see the tramp fleet and the handysize fleets start to move to alternative fuels,’ Keller added

5. Wind propulsion suppliers scaled up production as orders expanded from individual to fleet orders
2024 was a ‘very, very significant year’ for wind propulsion, according to Gavin Allwright, Secretary-General of the International Windship Association (IWSA).
One of the most significant developments, in his view, was a move from single-vessel orders to fleet-wide contracts. For example, MOL announced that it would install wind propulsion systems on seven vessels in May, Union Maritime decided to deploy BAR’s WindWings technology on 34 newbuilds in March and Norsepower Rotor Sails on four product tankers in June, and Maersk Tankers signed a contract to equip five ships with bound4blue’s eSAILs in November.

Many shipping companies are willing to do a ‘trial vessel’, Allwright pointed out, ‘but once companies are starting to say, “you know what, we've gone beyond that. We now want to put a commercial order for multiple vessels to be installed quite quickly,” that really does indicate a shift amongst the first movers, the early adopters. And that will build confidence in the market.’  He added that in response, some providers of wind propulsion systems have moved to scale up production. This year, Norsepower launched a new factory in China and BAR Technologies struck a deal to manufacture its systems also in China, in addition to Anemoi having a production line in the country.
Allwright expects that this will help slash both costs and lead time going into 2025. ‘Those investments can immediately start to bring costs down, and then you're in that economies of scale cycle, that positive circle of development, where costs are coming down, volumes are going up, lead times are reducing, and there's a whole learning curve of development,’ he explained.

Source : Bunkerspot  (by Ariane Morrisey)