A total of 5.5% of fleet capacity today is alternatively fuelled, up from 2.3% in 2017, according to Clarksons’ Green Technology Tracker, which estimates the figure to reach 6.5% by 2025.
Although alternative-fuelled newbuild ordering has been a little slower in 2023 to date, 48% of overall orderbook capacity is now alternative-fuelled when compared to 11% in 2017. The ordering this year has seen a relative trend towards methanol, with a 14% share of orders by tonnage against 22% dual fuel LNG, data from Clarksons shows.
The orderbook also has plenty of optionality built-in with 371 LNG “ready” orders, 191 ammonia “ready”, 130 methanol “ready” and 9 hydrogen “ready”.
Clarksons estimate that Energy Saving Technology (EST) has already been fitted on over 6,250 ships, accounting for 27.3% of fleet tonnage. These include propeller ducts (>2,000), rudder bulbs (>1,600), Flettner rotors (>20), wind kites and rigid sails (>12), air lubrication systems (>350) and others.
Scrubbers are now fitted to over 5,050 ships in the fleet, equivalent to 25% of total tonnage. As disclosed, retrofitting activity remains at relatively low levels but orders for new buildings have picked up marginally in 2023, with reported orders already surpassing last year’s total.
‘Eco’ ships make up a growing share of the fleet, with eco ‘modern’ vessels now accounting for 30.4% of total gross tonnage against 14.6% at start-2018. Clarksons anticipates that there will be implications for earnings potential, asset values, and increasingly “tiered” and complex charter markets as this green fleet transition evolves.
The ship broker estimates that shipyards will benefit from huge fleet renewal requirements in the upcoming period, with an estimated $1.6 trillion of newbuild orders in the next ten years.
That being said, Clarksons believes investment may be “lumpy” as technology, regulations, and yard capacity evolve.